The Effect of Population Growth on Poverty Through Unemployment in East Java Province in 2017-2021

Abstract

In 2022, the number of poor people in Java is ranked first in Indonesia,  as many as 4. 181. 290 inhabitants (semester one) and  4. 236. 510 inhabitants (second semester). Factors are the cause of population growth and unemployment rates.  Thisresearch aims to measure and determine the effect of population growth on poverty through unemployment rate as a mediating variable.  Thisresearch uses quantitative methods.  Data collection techniques wereobtained from  the Central Statistics Agency (BPS)  of East Java Province in the form of time series data from 201 to 2021. Data analysis techniques include classical assumption tests, path analysis tests and sobel tests through IBM SPSS Statistics 25 software  and  online statistics calculators. Theresultsof this research show that  population growth has a positive and insignificant  effect on poverty. The result of the regression coefficient is a positive direction of 0.324  with a significance value  of 0.091 > 0.05.  Inaddition, people without progress in other developmental factors  will not increaseincome. Population growth has a positive and significant  effect on the unemployment rate. Theresulting regression coefficient is  a positive direction of 0.225 with a significance value  of 0.004 < 0.05.  The increase in population cannot be fully absorbed  by the company. The unemployment rate has a negative and significant  effect on poverty. Theregression coefficient is  a negative direction of -0.948 with a significance value  of  0.000 < 0.05.  Unemployment is not necessarily low or  underprivileged. Because they are from families withsufficient income. Population growth on poverty mediated by the unemployment rate  is a negative effect and there is no mediated effect.  The result of the sobel test obtained an Unstandardized Coefficients B value  of -0.213 and  an Unstandardized Coefficients Std  value. Error of 0.085 > 0.05.