Elasticity, Buoyancy, and the Potential for Value-Added Tax Revenue from Ecommerce Transactions in Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the Value-Added Tax (VAT) collection policy in Indonesia’s e-commerce sector and estimate its revenue potential. The study uses e-commerce transaction data and VAT revenue data for the 2019–2021 period. Policy effectiveness is analyzed using tax buoyancy and tax elasticity coefficients through the Divisia Index method, while potential VAT revenue is projected using the decomposition method. The results show that the tax buoyancy coefficient for the e-commerce sector is 5.768, while the tax elasticity coefficient is 4.158, with a discretionary policy effect coefficient of 1.670. The higher buoyancy coefficient compared with tax elasticity indicates that the VAT collection policy has contributed positively to increasing tax revenue beyond the natural growth of the tax base. The projection results indicate substantial VAT revenue potential from e-commerce transactions, estimated at IDR 56.54 trillion in 2022 and IDR 73.99 trillion in 2023. These findings demonstrate that the e-commerce sector has significant potential as a source of VAT revenue in Indonesia. Therefore, optimizing tax collection mechanisms, strengthening transaction data integration, and simplifying tax administration procedures are necessary to maximize VAT revenue from the e-commerce sector.