Risk-Based Time Contingency Analysis for Hospital Building Construction Projects Using the Pert (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) Method

Abstract

Hospital construction projects involve high technical complexity, multidisciplinary coordination, and uncertainty, which can increase the risk of schedule delays. This study aimed to develop a risk-based time contingency analysis using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to improve schedule reliability for the Central Medical Building project at HVA Toeloengredjo Hospital, Kediri. This applied quantitative study used primary data obtained from interviews, questionnaires, and observations, supported by secondary data, including the work breakdown structure, project schedules, cost plans, and progress reports. Optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic activity durations were validated by experts, while activity relationships and critical paths were analyzed using the Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) and PERT. The results showed that the existing deterministic schedule of 335 days had only a 10.34% probability of timely completion, whereas PERT estimated an expected project duration of 356.17 days with a standard deviation of 16.77 days. Architectural, reinforced concrete, plumbing, medical gas, and water utility works contributed significantly to schedule uncertainty. Achieving completion probabilities of 80% and 90% required approximately 14 and 21 additional contingency days, resulting in total project durations of approximately 370 and 378 days, respectively. The findings demonstrated that risk-based PERT provides a more realistic and adaptive scheduling framework for mitigating delay risks in complex hospital construction projects.