Analysis of the Effectiveness of Local Government Spending on the Human Development Index in the Regencies and Cities of East Nusa Tenggara Province, 2019–2024
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This research aims to determine whether local government expenditure is effective in improving the Human Development Index (HDI) in the 22 regencies/cities of East Nusa Tenggara Province during the 2019–2024 period, as well as to examine why this province has a high dependence on government spending but maintains an HDI below the national average. In this analysis, local government expenditure is used as an independent variable, while the Human Development Index is used as the dependent variable. In addition, poverty and GDP per capita at constant prices are included as control variables. The data analysis technique employed in this study is panel data regression analysis using the Fixed Effects Model (FEM). The results indicate that regional expenditure has a significant effect on HDI, while poverty has a significant and negative effect on HDI, and GDP per capita has an insignificant effect on HDI. In contrast, the negative and significant effect of poverty indicates that higher poverty rates are associated with lower human development outcomes. These findings imply that improving the quality, efficiency, and targeting of public spending, particularly in poverty alleviation and basic service delivery, is essential for enhancing human development in East Nusa Tenggara. This study contributes to the literature on fiscal policy effectiveness in eastern Indonesia and provides practical recommendations for more evidence-based budget planning and poverty reduction strategies.
Copyright (c) 2026 Bilyanto Alfarizi, Fauzul Adzim
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